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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 4
2017-09-17 11:07:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170907 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...MARIA STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 54.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has changed the Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica to a Hurricane Watch. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Guadeloupe * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * Martinique * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be issued today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 54.9 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion with a further reduction in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will be near the Leeward Islands Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria will likely become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels within the Hurricane Watch area. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern Leeward Islands and north-central Windward Islands. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics
2017-09-17 10:59:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 08:59:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 09:36:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-09-17 10:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170848 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 Maria's cloud pattern is becoming better organized with developing convective banding features and a gradually expanding CDO. Upper-level outflow is only slightly restricted over the southern portion of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 55 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The environment should be conducive for continued strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the next couple of days. Latest center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure area to the north of Maria is forecast to weaken slightly over the next several days. This should result in a continued west-northwestward motion with a slowing of forward speed. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, and lies on the left side of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these islands today. 2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-09-17 10:48:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 170847 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 28(44) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 23(50) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 50(70) 8(78) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 8(49) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 5(30) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 50(63) 12(75) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 11(48) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 8(30) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 48(75) 7(82) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 7(54) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 6(34) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 36(79) 4(83) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 37(52) 5(57) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 4(36) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 44(49) 31(80) 3(83) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 33(53) 3(56) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 2(34) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 54(59) 24(83) 2(85) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 29(58) 1(59) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 23(38) 2(40) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 54(69) 8(77) 1(78) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 9(46) 1(47) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 6(26) 1(27) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 29(35) 49(84) 3(87) 1(88) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 48(56) 5(61) X(61) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 4(41) X(41) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 37(44) 31(75) 3(78) X(78) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 31(40) 2(42) X(42) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) X(23) ANTIGUA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 46(58) 28(86) 1(87) X(87) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 34(55) 2(57) X(57) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 1(36) X(36) GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 52(82) 12(94) X(94) X(94) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 45(51) 24(75) 1(76) X(76) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 22(50) 1(51) X(51) AVES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 43(64) 3(67) 1(68) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 4(43) X(43) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 3(26) 1(27) DOMINICA 34 X 3( 3) 37(40) 39(79) 6(85) 1(86) X(86) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 14(14) 40(54) 10(64) 1(65) X(65) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 11(45) X(45) X(45) MARTINIQUE 34 1 3( 4) 37(41) 23(64) 4(68) X(68) X(68) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 17(17) 21(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 2( 3) 13(16) 11(27) 6(33) X(33) 1(34) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) BARBADOS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-09-17 10:47:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170847 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA TO A HURRICANE WATCH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE BRITISH AND U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 54.9W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 54.9W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 54.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 54.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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