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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 6A

2017-09-18 01:47:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 172347 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...MARIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 57.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Martinique A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Lucia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be issued tonight or on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located by the French radar on Martinique near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 57.9 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands Monday night and then over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria could be near major hurricane intensity when it moves across the Leeward Islands Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of the Leeward Islands by Monday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area Monday or Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches for the northern and central Windward Islands. In all the above areas, these rainfall amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-17 22:59:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 20:59:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 21:36:19 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2017-09-17 22:54:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 172053 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 34(55) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 27(60) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) 13(60) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 11(31) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 57(63) 20(83) 1(84) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 24(56) 2(58) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 21(36) 2(38) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 46(50) 31(81) 4(85) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 34(52) 4(56) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 4(38) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 60(69) 17(86) 1(87) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 21(59) 1(60) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 18(40) 1(41) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 62(79) 10(89) 1(90) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) 11(62) X(62) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 11(43) 1(44) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 58(81) 6(87) X(87) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 9(60) X(60) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 7(39) X(39) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 52(88) 3(91) 1(92) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 53(62) 4(66) 1(67) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 5(47) 1(48) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 43(59) 22(81) 1(82) X(82) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 24(42) 1(43) X(43) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 1(22) X(22) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 4( 5) 39(44) 39(83) 9(92) X(92) X(92) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) 15(62) 1(63) X(63) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 13(39) X(39) X(39) BARBUDA 34 2 4( 6) 38(44) 25(69) 6(75) 1(76) X(76) BARBUDA 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) ANTIGUA 34 2 7( 9) 58(67) 16(83) 4(87) X(87) X(87) ANTIGUA 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 22(42) 5(47) X(47) X(47) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) GUADELOUPE 34 2 39(41) 51(92) 4(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GUADELOUPE 50 X 4( 4) 57(61) 11(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) GUADELOUPE 64 X 1( 1) 36(37) 10(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) AVES 34 1 4( 5) 27(32) 35(67) 9(76) 1(77) X(77) AVES 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 11(44) X(44) 1(45) AVES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) DOMINICA 34 2 71(73) 23(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) DOMINICA 50 X 22(22) 50(72) 4(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) DOMINICA 64 X 11(11) 49(60) 5(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) MARTINIQUE 34 2 77(79) 7(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MARTINIQUE 50 1 25(26) 14(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) MARTINIQUE 64 X 18(18) 12(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SAINT LUCIA 34 2 26(28) 8(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) 1(40) SAINT LUCIA 50 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) BARBADOS 34 7 7(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARBADOS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT OF SPAIN 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 6

2017-09-17 22:54:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172053 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 A burst of deep convection developed over Maria's center since the last advisory and has continued to expand in size. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the cyclone found maximum flight-level winds of 63 kt and SFMR surface winds of 64 kt. The crew also noted the formation of an open eyewall. Based on these data and observations, Maria is upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 283/13 kt. Maria is expected to maintain this trajectory for quite some time, but it will likely slow down during the next 36 hours as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Overall, the track guidance is tightly clustered for the entire 5-day forecast period, which increases confidence in the NHC track forecast. The updated official forecast is slightly south of the previous one for the first 36 hours, mainly due to the update of the initial position found by the aircraft, but it is right along the previous track after 36 hours. This solution is between the GFS and ECMWF models and very close to the HCCA solution. The aircraft data indicate that Maria has a compact circulation, which could make it a prime candidate for significant intensification in an environment of low shear and warm SSTs. Rapid intensification indices are not especially high, but nonetheless, Maria is forecast to continue strengthening and potentially reach major hurricane by 48 hours. If that occurs, some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to eyewall replacements and land interaction, but Maria will likely remain as a major hurricane on days 3 through 5. Because of Maria's small size the chance of significant strengthening is higher, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance, closest to the HWRF and HCCA models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria has strengthened to a hurricane and could be near major hurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islands over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings will likely be extended northward and westward tonight or on Monday. 2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane. Hurricane watches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and could be extended to Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.8N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 14.3N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.1N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 17.8N 65.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 19.0N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 21.0N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-17 22:53:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 17 the center of Maria was located near 13.8, -57.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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