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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2017-09-18 10:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 180835 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 26(56) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 49(56) 18(74) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 17(48) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 6(23) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 3(20) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 40(57) 8(65) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 6(35) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 21(56) 2(58) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) 1(28) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) PONCE PR 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 37(42) 44(86) 3(89) X(89) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 51(63) 3(66) X(66) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 2(43) 1(44) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 61(84) 4(88) 1(89) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 53(57) 6(63) 1(64) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 6(42) X(42) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 47(54) 39(93) 1(94) X(94) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 51(71) 2(73) X(73) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) 2(52) X(52) VIEQUES PR 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 58(76) 19(95) 1(96) X(96) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 35(76) 2(78) X(78) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 34(55) 1(56) X(56) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 55(80) 14(94) X(94) X(94) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 25(70) 1(71) X(71) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 24(44) 1(45) X(45) SAINT CROIX 34 1 3( 4) 42(46) 44(90) 7(97) X(97) X(97) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 10(10) 54(64) 17(81) X(81) X(81) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 18(61) X(61) X(61) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 6( 8) 57(65) 13(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 43(45) 45(90) 2(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 4( 4) 44(48) 5(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) BARBUDA 34 2 37(39) 24(63) 3(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) BARBUDA 50 1 3( 4) 9(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARBUDA 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 3 67(70) 16(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ANTIGUA 50 1 11(12) 17(29) 1(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) ANTIGUA 64 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GUADELOUPE 34 29 68(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GUADELOUPE 50 2 58(60) 5(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) GUADELOUPE 64 X 27(27) 5(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) AVES 34 2 31(33) 46(79) 4(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) AVES 50 X 5( 5) 34(39) 6(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) AVES 64 X 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) DOMINICA 34 80 19(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 50 16 73(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) DOMINICA 64 4 66(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) MARTINIQUE 34 76 11(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MARTINIQUE 50 21 12(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MARTINIQUE 64 5 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT LUCIA 34 8 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT LUCIA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBADOS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-18 10:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA HEADED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Maria was located near 14.6, -59.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 8

2017-09-18 10:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...MARIA HEADED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 59.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM ESE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Martinique A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Lucia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 59.5 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late today and tonight and then over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane before it moves through the Leeward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of the Leeward Islands by late today, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the day today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area through tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the remaining northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla, as well as the Windward Islands and Barbados. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 8

2017-09-18 10:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180835 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT * MARTINIQUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. LUCIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 59.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 59.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 59.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.1N 60.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 62.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.6N 63.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.4N 64.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.0N 67.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 70.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 59.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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