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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 38

2017-09-25 16:40:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 251439 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DUCK TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 72.9W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 72.9W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.8N 73.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.9N 73.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.8N 73.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.7N 73.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.7N 71.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 42.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 72.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-25 13:48:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Maria was located near 30.8, -73.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 37A

2017-09-25 13:48:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251147 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 ...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 73.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border * North of Surf City to south of Cape Lookout A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so. Reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday night. Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL...Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting portions of the coast of the southeastern United States and Bermuda and will be increasing along the coasts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, portions of the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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