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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-25 10:57:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 08:57:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:28:31 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 37

2017-09-25 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250851 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 A combination of conventional satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria is weakening and undergoing major changes in structure as it encounters the cool water left by Hurricane Jose. Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center has become exposed to the northwest of the remaining central convection, with some outer convective banding remaining mainly in the eastern semicircle. The scatterometer and aircraft data suggests that the inner wind core has collapsed, with no hurricane force winds occurring in the western semicircle. Based on the combination of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 70 kt, and the initial and forecast wind radii have been significantly changed. The initial motion is 355/6. Maria is being steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level cyclone over the southeastern U.S. and the subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. A mid-level ridge moving eastward across the northeastern U.S. will likely cause Maria's forward motion to slow some more over the next couple of days. After that time, the mid-latitude westerlies are expected to encroach on Maria, causing it to turn sharply to the east- northeast and accelerate. The guidance is in good agreement on this track scenario, and the new forecast track, which lies between the ECMWF and the various consensus models, is an update of the previous forecast. The environment of cool sea surface temperatures and moderate shear should keep Maria weakening. However, it unclear just how fast it will weaken, as the guidance has been generally forecasting a slower weakening than has actually occurred. The new intensity forecast will follow the trend of the guidance and the previous forecast of a gradual weakening, with Maria now forecast to weaken below hurricane status after 36 h. However, an alternate scenario is that the cyclone continues weakening at a faster rate and thus winds up weaker than the new intensity forecast. Maria is a large cyclone, so even if it weakens to a tropical storm and remains well offshore it is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the North Carolina coast during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the coast of North Carolina. 2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North Carolina Outer Banks. 3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid- Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 30.6N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 31.4N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 32.5N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 33.5N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 34.3N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 35.5N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 37.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 40.0N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2017-09-25 10:51:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 08:51:31 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

2017-09-25 10:49:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 250849 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 9(18) 1(19) X(19) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) NORFOLK VA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 9(23) 1(24) X(24) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) 10(26) 1(27) X(27) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 7(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 9(13) 17(30) 12(42) 10(52) 1(53) X(53) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 5( 8) 8(16) 7(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) NEW RIVER NC 34 4 7(11) 12(23) 8(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 4 5( 9) 11(20) 7(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) SURF CITY NC 34 3 4( 7) 7(14) 4(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 4(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-25 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Maria was located near 30.6, -73.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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