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Tropical Storm HENRI Forecast Advisory Number 6
2015-09-10 10:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100834 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 61.0W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 61.0W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 61.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.0N 61.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 35.9N 60.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 39.3N 59.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 43.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 48.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 46.5N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 61.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm HENRI Graphics
2015-09-10 04:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2015 02:42:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2015 02:50:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm HENRI Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-09-10 04:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100244 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015 Recently received ASCAT-B scatterometer data showed an area of 35-40 kt wind vectors in the convection about 75-100 n mi east of the center. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 35 kt and the cyclone is upgraded to a tropical storm. Despite the upgrade, Henri remains a disorganized system, with the low-level center remaining exposed to the west of the convection due to 15-20 kt of shear. In addition, microwave satellite data and experimental European multispectral satellite imagery suggest a tongue of dry air is entraining into the cyclone around the west, south, and southeast sides of the circulation. Henri has started its expected northward track with the initial motion of 355/4. For the next 36-48 hours, the cyclone should move generally northward with an increase in forward speed between the subtropical ridge to the east and a deep-layer trough moving eastward through the eastern United States. After that time, Henri should turn northeastward and eastward as it enters the westerlies. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies a little south of the center of the guidance envelope after 36 hours due to a northward shift in the guidance. The dynamical models suggest that the shear should subside during the next 36-48 hours, and that the dry air entrainment should also decrease. This combination should allow Henri to strengthen until it reaches colder sea surface temperatures north of the Gulf Stream in a little under 48 hours. After that, the cyclone is expected to become extratropical as it merges with a frontal system. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity near 50 kt in 36-48 hours, followed by gradual weakening. The first 48 hours are in best agreement with the SHIPS model, and the intensities after extratropical transition are based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 31.3N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 32.8N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 35.3N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 38.6N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 42.4N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 47.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0000Z 47.5N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0000Z 47.0N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm HENRI Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-09-10 04:44:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 FONT13 KNHC 100243 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 5(37) X(37) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm HENRI (AT3/AL082015)
2015-09-10 04:44:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM HENRI... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of HENRI was located near 31.3, -60.7 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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