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Tropical Storm HENRI Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-10 16:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101435 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015 The cloud pattern of Henri remains disorganized with most of the convection sheared off to the east and northeast of the center. Visible images also indicate that the system has little organization in the central core, with multiple smaller vortices rotating around a mean center. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt, although some Dvorak estimates suggest it could have weakened to a tropical depression. Southwesterly shear and dry air is currently limiting the amount of deep convection near the center of the cyclone. Global models, however, all weaken the shear later today, which could allow Henri to strengthen while it moves over warm waters before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours. Henri is still forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days and then weaken while it moves over very cold water with high shear. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast is very close to the previous one. Satellite fixes indicate that Henri is moving northward at about 8 kt. The storm should accelerate northward today and northeastward tomorrow as it encounters faster steering from the subtropical ridge. After that time, an even faster northeastward and then eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. There have been no significant changes to the guidance, and the NHC track forecast is basically just an update of the previous prediction. The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 32.6N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 34.5N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 37.8N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 41.4N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 45.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 49.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z 45.5N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm HENRI (AT3/AL082015)
2015-09-10 16:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 10 the center of HENRI was located near 32.6, -60.8 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm HENRI Public Advisory Number 7
2015-09-10 16:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015 ...HENRI MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 60.8W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 60.8 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A faster northeastward motion is predicted on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will pass well east of Bermuda later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm HENRI Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-09-10 16:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 FONT13 KNHC 101435 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) X(39) X(39) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm HENRI Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-09-10 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTNT23 KNHC 101434 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 60.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 60.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 60.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.5N 60.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 37.8N 60.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 41.4N 58.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 45.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...90NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 49.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 45.5N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 60.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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