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Remnants of HENRI Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2015-09-11 22:33:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 000 FONT13 KNHC 112033 PWSAT3 REMNANTS OF HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF HENRI WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Remnants of HENRI Forecast Advisory Number 12
2015-09-11 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 000 WTNT23 KNHC 112032 TCMAT3 REMNANTS OF HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 58.5W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 58.5W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 59.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 58.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm HENRI Graphics
2015-09-11 17:08:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2015 14:56:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2015 15:03:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm HENRI Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-09-11 16:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 111456 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015 Visible satellite images indicate that the surface circulation of Henri has become rather distorted this morning. Multiple low-level swirls can be seen in the circulation that is elongated from southeast to northwest, with some suggestion that the cyclone may no longer be closed in the northwestern quadrant. The intensity is being held at 35 kt in agreement with the satellite estimate from TAFB. Although shear is somewhat lower over the cyclone, it appears that the low-level structure is too poor to take advantage of the more favorable environment. The intensity forecast has been lowered a little to reflect the less conducive conditions. The cyclone or its remnants are forecast to undergo extratropical transition in about 24 hours while moving over colder water with high shear, and the system is likely to be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone by 72 hours. An alternate scenario, one that is becoming more likely, is that Henri could degenerate into a trough later today. The initial motion estimate is 020/17. Henri is expected to accelerate north-northeastward and then northeastward during the next day or so as it encounters increasing flow ahead of a deep longwave trough digging into eastern North America and the western Atlantic. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants should then turn east-northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new track forecast is very similar to the previous one and near or on the right side of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 38.0N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 41.0N 57.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 44.9N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/0000Z 48.0N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1200Z 50.0N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm HENRI (AT3/AL082015)
2015-09-11 16:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of HENRI was located near 38.0, -59.4 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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