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Tropical Storm HENRI Graphics
2015-09-10 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2015 08:38:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2015 08:50:47 GMT
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henri
Tropical Storm HENRI Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-09-10 10:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100836 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015 There has been little change in the cloud pattern of Henri since the previous advisory. The tropical storm remains sheared with the low-level center displaced to the west of the main area of deep convection. The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, which could be conservative based on the earlier scatterometer data. This intensity estimate is on the high side of the latest Dvorak analyses. Henri is currently being affected by 15-20 kt of west-southwesterly wind shear and dry air has wrapped around the west and south sides of the circulation. The shear is expected to lessen later today, and that could allow Henri to gain some strength. However, significant intensification is not expected as the cyclone should cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours, where a sharp gradient in sea surface temperatures exist. Henri is forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days, when it is expected to be over cold water. Most of the guidance shows the extratropical low dissipating by day 5, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The tropical storm has been moving erratically during the last several hours, but the general motion has been slowly northward. A faster northward motion is expected to begin later today and continue for the next 24 to 36 hours as a subtropical ridge strengthens to the east of Henri. After that time, an even faster northeastward and then eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The models are in good agreement on this overall scenario, and little change was made to the previous track forecast. The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 31.4N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 33.0N 61.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 35.9N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 39.3N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 43.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 48.0N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0600Z 46.5N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm HENRI (AT3/AL082015)
2015-09-10 10:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 10 the center of HENRI was located near 31.4, -61.0 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm HENRI Public Advisory Number 6
2015-09-10 10:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100835 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015 ...HENRI MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 61.0W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 61.0 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A faster north-northeastward motion is predicted on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will pass well east of Bermuda later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm HENRI Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-09-10 10:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 000 FONT13 KNHC 100835 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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