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Tropical Storm HENRI Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-09-11 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 110232 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015 Henri has changed little in organization during the past several hours. The system continues to have some characteristics of a subtropical cyclone, with the convective banding and strongest winds well away from the center in the northeastern semicircle. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, as there has been no new scatterometer data from the area where the strongest winds are likely occurring. The initial motion is northward or 005/12. Henri should accelerate and turn to the northeast during the next 48 hours as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, a quick eastward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates. The new track forecast is an update of the previous forecast and is just to the right of the various consensus models. The vertical wind shear over Henri is diminishing, so there is a chance that the system could intensify a little before reaching cold water north of the Gulf Stream in about 18 hours. After that, the system should begin extratropical transition as it merges with a frontal system, and this process is expected to be complete in about 36 hours. The cyclone is likely to be absorbed by a larger extratropical system between 72-96 hours. An alternative scenario is that Henri could degenerate to a trough between 24-72 hours as indicated by several of the global models. The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be post-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 34.8N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 37.5N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 41.2N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 44.9N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0000Z 47.6N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0000Z 48.0N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm HENRI (AT3/AL082015)
2015-09-11 04:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLD WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 10 the center of HENRI was located near 34.8, -60.7 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm HENRI Public Advisory Number 9
2015-09-11 04:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTNT33 KNHC 110232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015 ...HENRI MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLD WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 60.7W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 60.7 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Henri could become a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm HENRI Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2015-09-11 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 000 FONT13 KNHC 110232 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 17(17) 16(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm HENRI Forecast Advisory Number 9
2015-09-11 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 000 WTNT23 KNHC 110231 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 60.7W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 60.7W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 37.5N 60.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 41.2N 58.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 44.9N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 47.6N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 48.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 60.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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