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Tropical Storm HENRI Public Advisory Number 11
2015-09-11 16:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015 000 WTNT33 KNHC 111455 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015 ...HENRI LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.0N 59.4W ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 59.4 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). An increase in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by Sunday with some additional acceleration. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Henri is forecast to become post-tropical on Saturday, however, Henri could dissipate later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm HENRI Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-09-11 16:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 000 FONT13 KNHC 111455 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 1( 1) 40(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 13(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm HENRI Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-09-11 16:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 000 WTNT23 KNHC 111455 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 59.4W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 59.4W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 41.0N 57.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 44.9N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 48.0N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...60NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 50.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 59.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm HENRI Graphics
2015-09-11 10:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2015 08:38:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2015 08:50:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm HENRI Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-09-11 10:40:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 110840 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015 Overall, Henri's cloud pattern has become slightly better organized since the last advisory. While nearly all of the cyclone's deep convection is still located well to the northeast of the center, a relatively new convective burst over this area has grown in coverage and cloud tops have cooled. Subjective Dvorak classifications remain below tropical storm strength, but the initial intensity held at 35 kt due to the cyclone's increasing forward speed and somewhat improved satellite presentation. Southerly shear appears to be diminishing over the cyclone, as has been forecast by the large-scale models. The lower shear could allow for some additional intensification to take place during the next 12 hours or so while it remains over warm-enough waters. However, the continued presence of dry air in the near-storm environment and Henri's disorganized appearance suggest that any intensification should be negligible. After the cyclone crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream in less than 18 hours, substantially lower sea surface temperatures and increasingly stable air should induce weakening soon after that. A plausible alternate scenario, presented by some of the global models, is that Henri could degenerate into a trough later today. The cyclone or its remnants are forecast to undergo extratropical transition in about 36 hours, with the system likely to be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone by 72 hours. The new intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one. The initial motion estimate is 010/14. Henri is expected to accelerate north-northeastward and then northeastward during the next day or so as it encounters the fast-paced flow ahead of a deep longwave trough digging into eastern North America and the western Atlantic. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants should then turn east-northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new track forecast is adjusted to the left of the previous forecast and lies on the right side of the guidance envelope. The latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be post-tropical, is partially based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 36.2N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 39.0N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 43.0N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 46.5N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0600Z 48.9N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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