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Tropical Depression Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-09-22 04:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 220238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-22 01:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212331 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Peter, located a couple of hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico, and on Tropical Storm Rose, located about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have increased since this morning and are beginning to show signs of organization. Recent satellite wind data also indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed, but the system lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located about 500 miles west of the westernmost Azores. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics over marginally warm waters during the next few days while it executes a small counter-clockwise loop over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. However, by the end of the week, this system is expected to encounter more hostile environmental conditions. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-22 01:15:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 212315 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Sep 21 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located over 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce some disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form by late this week while the low moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. This system is forecast to move over cooler waters and into a more stable environment by the weekend, which should inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-09-21 22:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 212050 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Tue Sep 21 2021 Like clockwork compared to prior days, deep convection has reignited closer to the increasingly elongated low-level circulation of Peter. Despite this increase in convective coverage, there does not appear to be much if any organization to this activity, with the upper-level cirrus taking on the appearance of a shapeless blob. In addition, an earlier 1157 UTC ASCAT-A pass received just after the prior advisory showed a peak wind retrieval of only 29 kt, well to the north of the low-level circulation. Furthermore, NOAA buoy 41043, located north of the center of Peter, has been observing peak 1-minute sustained winds between 20-25 kt over the last 6 hours. These lower winds, in combination with the lack of tropical storm force winds observed by the earlier Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission provide enough justification to downgrade Peter to a tropical depression this advisory with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. The ongoing afternoon convection appears to have slowed down the forward motion of Peter a bit this afternoon, but the heading remains off to the west-northwest at 300/7 kt. Peter is still expected to gradually move to the west-northwest in the short term, followed by a somewhat sharp turn to the north and north-northeast as a weakness in the low-level flow develops from a deep-layer trough positioned near Bermuda. Similar to this morning, the guidance is in general agreement on this solution, with some cross- and along-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is just a bit more right compared to the previous advisory, leaning a bit closer to the consensus aids which have also shifted a bit right this advisory. Peter's convective activity is unlikely to help improve the increasingly elongated vortex, mainly because the convection is likely to entrain dry mid-level air that often results in cool downdrafts disrupting the low-level cyclonic circulation more than helping. With deep-layer shear between 25-35 kt expected to persist for the next 36 hours in both the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS guidance, gradual weakening is likely to continue. By 36 hours, while intermittent bursts of deep convection will remain possible over warm sea-surface temperatures, both the GFS and ECMWF forecast simulated IR brightness temperatures show the convection becoming increasingly disorganized and unlikely to sustain Peter's status as a tropical cyclone. Thus, the cyclone is now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 hours. However, given that Peter's circulation is becoming increasingly elongated, it is also possible the system may open up into a trough even before this time period. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Depression Peter could lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through the evening across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, portions of the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 20.5N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 21.3N 66.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 22.3N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 23.2N 67.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 24.2N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0600Z 25.3N 66.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 26.7N 65.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z 28.7N 63.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Tags: number
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Tropical Depression Peter Graphics
2021-09-21 22:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 20:50:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Sep 2021 20:50:16 GMT
Tags: peter
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