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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-07 01:08:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 062308 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Delta, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, approaching the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-10-06 22:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 20:37:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 21:32:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-10-06 22:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Marie's center remains exposed, with limited shower activity displaced more than 110 n mi northeast of the center. Consequently, the system is poised to become a remnant low tonight if organized convection doesn't redevelop near the center of circulation. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, and is in best agreement with a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and in deference to this morning's scatterometer data which indicated numerous 40-kt winds. Marie should continue to gradually spin down during the 36 hours while moving west-northwestward over 24C sea surface temperatures and through an extremely inhibiting surrounding environment. Through the remaining portion of the period, the post-tropical remnant low should turn westward within the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure Friday. Only a small along-track adjustment was made to the NHC forecast in order to agree more with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2020-10-06 22:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 062036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 the center of Marie was located near 22.4, -135.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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