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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-10-08 16:41:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 081441 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.0N 106.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.4N 107.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 108.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 15.8N 109.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-08 13:17:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 081117 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Delta, located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-08 13:08:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 081108 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Oct 8 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Norbert, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the low drifts north-northwestward through Thursday, and then turns westward by Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another area of low pressure centered about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as the low drifts southeastward or east-southeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-08 10:45:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 08:45:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 08:45:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-08 10:44:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080843 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Norbert was very close to becoming a remnant low overnight. A recent burst of deep convection to the southeast of the partially exposed low-level center was sufficient to keep Norbert as a tropical depression for this advisory. Water vapor imagery indicates the depression is still battling dry mid-level air on the northern periphery of the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on a 04 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that showed max winds of 25 kt in the southwest quadrant of Norbert. Norbert is presently drifting east-southeastward under weak steering currents, and the cyclone may continue meandering erratically for the next 6-12 h. Then, Norbert is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward or westward through 48 h. Thereafter, a mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north and northeast of Norbert, which should steer the system northwestward at a slightly faster speed. The NHC forecast track is shifted slightly to the right of the previous one based on the guidance consensus aids including TVCE and HCCA. Although drier mid-level air continues to impinge on the northern side of Norbert's circulation, the depression remains in an otherwise favorable environment of high oceanic heat content and light vertical wind shear. If Norbert can survive the slight increase in deep-layer shear depicted by the SHIPS guidance during the next 24 h, improving environmental conditions thereafter could allow Norbert to at least remain a depression for several days. Alternatively, moderate shear and additional dry air intrusions could cause Norbert to degenerate into a remnant low at almost any time. The NHC intensity forecast assumes the first scenario and keeps Norbert as a 25-30 kt depression for the next several days. By 96-120 h, GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection as it moves into a drier mid-level environment. Thus, the official forecast depicts a transition to remnant low status by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 13.2N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 13.0N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 13.2N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 13.5N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 14.4N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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