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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-10-06 10:50:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060850 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.2W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.2W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.1N 106.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-06 07:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 060536 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Delta, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles southwest of western Jamaica. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma, located near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-06 07:17:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 060517 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Marie, located over the western part of the basin, and on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing showers and limited thunderstorm activity. Some slight development of this system is possible over the next day or so while the system moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Another broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds could become a little more conducive for development in a couple of days as this system slowly moves northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Graphics
2020-10-06 04:56:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:56:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:56:09 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-10-06 04:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060251 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is beginning to show better signs of organization tonight. Recent satellite imagery depicts a burst of deep convection near the estimated center of the depression with cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. This trend, along with recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggests the system may be nearing tropical storm strength. The initial intensity is perhaps conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory based on earlier T2.0 classifications from TAFB and SAB. The estimated initial motion of the depression remains 340/6 kt. This general motion should continue through the overnight hours as the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over southern Mexico. As the ridge weakens through the middle of the week, the steering currents will break down and the system will likely meander well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico for several days. By days 4-5, global models indicate the ridge should rebuild over southern Mexico, which would eventually support a northwestward motion late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast track shows little change with this advisory, and remains close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The intensity forecast remains challenging with above average spread in the guidance. The environmental conditions generally appear favorable, with low to moderate deep-layer wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance indicates gradual strengthening will occur over the next several days. However, global models including the GFS and ECMWF, along with the HWRF and HMON, forecast little intensity change or even weakening as the system meanders well offshore. This could be a product of the system struggling to separate from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or possible upwelling as it drifts over the same general area for several days. Given these mixed signals in the guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains close to the previous advisory and only shows modest strengthening during the forecast period. This forecast still lies slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 13.3N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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