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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-07 19:56:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
722 ABPZ20 KNHC 071727 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 7 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Norbert, located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually become better organized in association with an elongated area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Further development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it moves slowly northwestward at about 5 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-07 19:55:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
964 ABNT20 KNHC 071727 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Delta, located just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Norbert Graphics
2020-10-07 16:48:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 14:48:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Oct 2020 15:32:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-10-07 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 323 WTPZ44 KNHC 071447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Norbert has recovered somewhat from the dry air intrusion that occurred last night. A new burst of deep convection developed near the center early this morning, but the associated cloud tops are beginning to warm and the convection is becoming displaced over the northeastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt, and is based off the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The storm is struggling to stay organized despite being over warm waters and in an environment of relatively low shear. By Thursday, the SHIPS guidance suggests that the shear will increase to around 10-15 kt. This shear, along with occasional dry air intrusions similar to one experienced last night, could gradually weaken the system. On the other hand, the warm waters could counteract the moderately negative environmental factors. The latest NHC forecast still favors the latter scenario, and shows Norbert remaining a 35-kt tropical storm throughout the forecast period. This intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is a compromise between the SHIPS guidance and the model consensus. The initial motion is stationary, although the exact center location has been difficult to pinpoint this morning. The steering flow is forecast to remain very weak over the next couple of days, and most of the models show little movement through tonight followed by a slow westward drift Wednesday through Thursday. By late this week, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north to northeast of the cyclone, which should force Norbert on a west-northwestward track. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 72 h, but was adjusted a little north after that time due to a northward shift in the guidance. However, the new track forecast remains south of the consensus aids late in the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.2N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-10-07 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 243 FOPZ14 KNHC 071447 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 7(23) 1(24) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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