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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161436 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Very little deep convection with cloud tops of -40C remains this morning, and what's left is located well to the west-northwest of the center of circulation. There could still be a few 35-kt winds remaining in that particular area, which was identified earlier by a scatterometer pass, so the initial intensity is held at a generous 35 kt for this advisory. Karina is expected to continue traversing cooler waters while moving farther into an inhibiting thermodynamic environment and unfavorable upper-level winds. Therefore, weakening is forecast and Karina should degenerate to a remnant low tonight. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and the cyclone should continue on this general motion through Thursday night. A westward turn is forecast on Friday as Karina degenerates to a remnant low and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 22.6N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Karina was located near 22.6, -123.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 123.9W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 123.9 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast today. A slower westward motion is expected toward the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.9W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.9W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 123.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 123.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 161435 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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