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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-16 04:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160230 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 32.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.4N 38.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.3N 39.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.5N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 33.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-16 01:11:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 152311 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, on Hurricane Sally, centered less than a hundred miles south of the coast of Alabama, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. An elongated area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend a couple of hundred miles off the coast of northeastern Mexico. Development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves southeastward at about 10 mph during the next couple of days. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 $$ Forecaster Berg
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-16 01:04:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 152304 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Karina, located about 800 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-15 22:59:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152059 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Latest satellite images show little significant change in the organization of deep convection associated with Karina since the previous advisory. Although the thunderstorms are primarily limited to the southwest semicircle, they remain over the center, and outflow in the northeast semicircle appears somewhat improved in the last couple of hours. A blend of subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 3.0/45 kt from SAB/HFO and 3.5/55 kt from TAFB supports maintaining an initial intensity of 50 kt. Karina is crossing the 26C isotherm with an initial motion estimate of 305/10 kt, and much cooler waters lie along the forecast track. Karina is being steered by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the centered to the northeast and north respectively, and the short term forecast anticipates some relaxation of the recent northeasterly shear as Karina rounds the ridges. This should lead to slow weakening in the short term, and as south to southwesterly shear increases after about 24 hours, Karina will continue to weaken. Simulated satellite imagery based on HWRF guidance indicates the cyclone will become convection-free within about 48 hours, with dissipation following soon thereafter. As Karina weakens and becomes increasingly shallow, it will be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface high centered to the distant northwest. The updated track forecast lies along the same trajectory as the previous, but is shifted slightly southward due to recent observed motion, and is near the middle of guidance envelope. The intensity forecast is essentially unchanged and closely follows trends presented by SHIPS and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 20.7N 122.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 21.6N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 22.5N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 23.2N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 23.3N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 22.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-15 22:44:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 20:44:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 20:44:26 GMT
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