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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-16 07:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 160544 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, on Hurricane Sally, centered near the northern Gulf coast, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing some signs of organization Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves southeastward and eastward at about 10 mph during the next few days. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 $$ Forecaster Blake
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-16 07:29:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 160529 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Karina, located about 900 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-16 05:11:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 03:11:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 03:53:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-16 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Karina's outflow has improved over the past 6 hours, but persistent deep convection over the low-level center has shown some signs of warming/weakening in the last couple hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is maintained at 50 kt, primarily based on a blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 45-55 kt from SAB/TAFB/HFO. Karina is moving toward the northwest at 10 kt (310/10 kt), steered by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the northeast and north, respectively. Although some relaxation of the recent northeasterly to easterly shear is expected to continue in the short-term, gradual weakening is expected as Karina is now over sub-26C water. As Karina rounds the southwestern portion of the deep-layer ridge in about 24 hours, south to southwesterly shear is expected to increase as the cyclone moves over even cooler waters and ingests increasingly dry air. This will lead to the demise of the cyclone, and Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in a couple of days, dissipating shortly thereafter. As the system weakens, it will be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface high centered to the distant northwest, causing a slowing in forward speed, and a turn toward the west and southwest. The new official track forecast has changed little from the previous, and lies very close to the dynamical consensus TVCE. The new intensity forecast is little changed, and closely follows both the statistical and dynamical guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 21.3N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Tropical Storm Teddy Graphics
2020-09-16 04:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 02:36:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 02:36:58 GMT
Tags: graphics
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teddy
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