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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-16 16:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161432 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.6N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.7N 37.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 41.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 42.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 34.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-16 13:15:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 161115 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Karina, located about 900 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-16 13:11:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 161110 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland, on Hurricane Sally, centered inland near Gulf Shores, Alabama, on recently upgraded Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that have become a little better organized during the past several hours. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves southeastward and eastward at about 10 mph during the next few days. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-16 10:26:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160826 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Vicky remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical storm. The low-level center is displaced to the west-southwest of the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, which is well above the Dvorak estimates. Vicky is expected to remain in hostile wind shear conditions while traversing 26 C waters, so it seems likely that weakening should occur. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the model guidance and shows gradual weakening during the next few days. Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but it is always tricky to figure out when these systems will lose all of its convection since it is forecast to stay over relatively warm waters. The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the left of the previous track at 285/9. Vicky should gradually turn westward later today and west-southwestward in a couple of days when it becomes a shallow cyclone and moves in the low-level flow. The new track forecast is just a little south of the previous one to be closer to the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 22.0N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 22.0N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 21.7N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 21.4N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 20.8N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-16 10:26:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:26:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:26:17 GMT
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