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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-17 01:07:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 162307 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Karina, located about 900 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-16 22:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:50:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:50:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression Karina Graphics
2020-09-16 22:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:50:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:50:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-16 22:45:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162044 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 There's been little change in Vicky's cloud pattern this afternoon. What's left of the deep convection associated with Vicky is displaced well to the east of the center. Cirrus clouds produced by the outflow of Hurricane Teddy, located nearly 1000 miles to the west-southwest of Vicky, are obscuring the sheared surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in deference to the earlier scatterometer pass and due to the fact that the cloud pattern has remained unchanged. The UW-CIMSS SAT-Wind/shear products and water vapor imagery reveal an interesting upper wind pattern consisting of an upper low just to the west of Vicky and a narrow upper-tropospheric ridge to the south of the cyclone. These upper-level features are temporarily creating a very diffluent pattern which appears to be offsetting the blistering westerly shear a bit. In any event, Vicky is still forecast to gradually lose strength and degenerate to a remnant low on Friday, which is in best agreement with the global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity aids. The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky should continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow. The new NHC track forecast is south of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TCVA multi-model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 21.3N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 19.8N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-16 22:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 162044 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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