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Tropical Depression Sally Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-09-17 04:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 170231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 86.1W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 86.1W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 86.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.7N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 86.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-17 01:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Sally was located near 31.5, -86.5 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sally Graphics
2020-09-17 01:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 23:51:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 21:24:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 23A
2020-09-17 01:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 162351 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 86.5W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF DOTHAN ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from the Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Florida line is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line eastward to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 86.5 West. Sally is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected tonight through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama tonight, over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally has produced storm totals of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of 30-35 inches, across the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, will continue across this region. Additional rainfall of 1 to 4 inches is possible across the Florida Panhandle from Tallahassee to the Apalachicola River. Rainfall totals expected as Sally tracks across the Southeast through Friday: Southern Alabama and central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches, resulting in significant flash flooding and widespread minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding. Central to upstate South Carolina: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is possible. Western to central North Carolina and far southeast Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Scattered flash flooding and widespread minor river flooding is possible. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Florida Panhandle coast but will continue to recede over the next several hours. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area this evening. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur tonight across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia. The threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into parts of eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas on Thursday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-17 01:18:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 162318 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Sally, located inland over southeastern Alabama, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have changed little in organization since yesterday. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move east-southeastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph over the next day or two, and its chances of acquiring some subtropical characteristics before it reaches the coast of Portugal late Friday appear to be decreasing. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 $$ Forecaster Berg
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