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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-15 16:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Karina has changed little in organization over the past several hours with a concentrated area of deep convection mostly over the southwestern portion of the circulation and over the estimated position of the low-level center. The initial intensity is kept at 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB and the objective UW-CIMSS ADT. Karina is now crossing the 26 isotherm, so it is unlikely that any further strengthening will occur. The cyclone is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable atmosphere over the next couple of days. These conditions should induce a weakening trend soon, and the deep convection is expected to gradually wane during that time. Karina is forecast to become a convection-free remnant low by 60 h, or perhaps a little sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various guidance aids. The initial motion of the tropical storm is 310/09 kt, as it continues to move along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its northeast. This general motion should continue while the system maintains convection. As the system becomes devoid of convection, a turn to the west and west-southwest is anticipated as the cyclone moves within the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 20.4N 121.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 23.9N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 23.5N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z 22.6N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-15 16:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 the center of Karina was located near 20.4, -121.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 11
2020-09-15 16:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 151432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...KARINA FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 121.1W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 121.1 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn to the west and then toward the west-southwest is expected late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening should begin by tonight, and Karina is forecast to become a remnant low in two or three days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-15 16:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 151432 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-15 16:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.5N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.6N 130.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 121.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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