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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-15 13:05:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151105 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Karina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-15 13:03:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 151103 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Paulette, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, on Hurricane Sally, centered over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower or thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, gradually continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward during the next few days where it will encounter warmer oceanic temperatures, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-15 10:57:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150857 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 The tropical storm appears to have gotten better organized overnight, with deeper convection near the center and an increase in banding features. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt, a little lower than the subjective Dvorak estimates alone would indicate since they have been running a little hot for this storm. While there are no signs of a true inner core yet, the shear is quite low at present, and Teddy should have several days in a low or moderate shear environment over warm waters to strengthen. Thus, the new forecast is raised from the previous one and is closest to a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the NOAA corrected- consensus guidance. Teddy bears watching in the long range for category 4 strength, but regardless of the details, all of the guidance show it becoming a classical large and powerful September hurricane. The storm has turned west-northwestward tonight, or 295/10 kt. Teddy remains in a well-defined steering current for the next several days on the southwestern edge of the central Atlantic ridge, causing a west-northwest to northwest track through the end of the forecast. While the guidance is in very good agreement, there's been a rightward shift of almost all the aids, perhaps due to more upper-level westerly flow than the last cycle. The NHC track forecast is shifted eastward but lies on the western side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 13.7N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.6N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 23.5N 56.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 26.5N 59.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Teddy Graphics
2020-09-15 10:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:56:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:56:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-15 10:55:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 479 FONT15 KNHC 150855 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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