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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-28 07:20:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 280520 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Laura, centered inland over Arkansas. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Laura can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and https://www.hurricanes.gov. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-28 07:06:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 280506 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hernan, located a little less than 100 miles west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and also on Tropical Storm Iselle, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Hernan Graphics
2020-08-28 04:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 02:43:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 03:31:37 GMT
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hernan
Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-28 04:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 02:37:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 03:38:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-28 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Iselle continues to produce bursts of deep convection in an environment of moderate easterly shear, with the latest round of convection completely covering the low-level center. Since satellite classifications haven't changed much since the previous advisory, the initial intensity is left at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. There is some uncertainty in exactly how strong the shear currently is, with SHIPS diagnostics showing nearly 30 kt while UW-CIMSS is analyzing a little under 20 kt. A recent SSMIS pass showed some defined curved banding, so I'm inclined to think the shear is closer to the lower estimate. With that said, the SHIPS diagnostics do show the shear relaxing just a bit during the next 12-24 hours, which could allow Iselle to strengthen a little, and this scenario is supported by the latest HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC, HCCA, and GFS model solutions. After that time, the shear is expected to strengthen again, and then Iselle will be moving over cooler waters. Therefore, the new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the previous one from 24 hours and beyond. Iselle is likely to lose all of its convection and become a remnant low in about 3 days and then open up into a trough by day 5. Iselle is embedded in an elongated mid-level trough which extends northeastward to Tropical Storm Hernan near the coast of Mexico, and its initial motion is north-northeastward, or 030/3 kt. The interaction between the two tropical storms is expected to cause Iselle to continue moving north-northeastward or northward during the first 2 days. Once Hernan dissipates and Iselle weakens, a low-level ridge over northern Mexico should cause Iselle to turn toward the northwest and west on days 3 and 4. The track models have shifted a bit to the northeast after 48 hours, leaving the previous forecast near the left side of the guidance envelope, so the new NHC forecast was adjusted closer to the multi-model consensus aids during that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 17.6N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.1N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 20.1N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 21.7N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 23.2N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 23.9N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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