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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-29 01:22:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 282322 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Iselle, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan, located just off the west coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-29 01:21:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 282321 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Laura, located inland over western Kentucky. A tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Laura can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and https://www.hurricanes.gov. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Laura Public Advisory Number 36
2020-08-28 23:07:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-28 22:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 20:36:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 21:38:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-28 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 282032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 First light visible imagery shows that Iselle's center of circulation has once again reappeared to the northeast of the deep convective mass. Last night's briefly diminished shear interlude probably resulted in Iselle's peak intensity. For this advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt which is based on a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, a METOP-B ASCAT overpass containing 40-45 kt winds and a SATCON analysis of 42 kt. The northeasterly shear is forecast to persist through the 24 hour period and then decrease and veer from the southeast. At that time, however, Iselle will be traversing sub 25C sea surface temperatures and will be moving into a more dry and stable surrounding environment. As a result, Iselle should weaken to a tropical depression Saturday night and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or, 020/6 kt. A northward direction should commence Saturday morning, then a turn north-northwestward is forecast Sunday morning. As Iselle continues to weaken and degenerates to a remnant low, a turn toward the northwest, well offshore of the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula, is expected to occur Sunday late night. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is close to the GFEX (FV3/ECMWF mean) and the NOAA HCCA consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 18.8N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 23.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0600Z 24.4N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 25.1N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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