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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-28 13:27:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 281127 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hernan, located a little over a hundred miles east of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and also on Tropical Storm Iselle, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Laura Public Advisory Number 34
2020-08-28 10:47:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-28 10:33:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 08:33:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 09:31:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-28 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280831 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Iselle continues to produce deep convection near the center and on its west side. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to a moderate amount of easterly wind shear. An ASCAT-A overpass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 45-50 kt range, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. The intensity models suggest that little change in strength is likely today as Iselle remains in the current environment of easterly shear. However, gradual weakening should begin by tonight and continue through the weekend as Iselle moves over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the models, and predicts Iselle to weaken to a tropical depression in a couple of days and to a remnant low shortly thereafter. Iselle is moving slowly northeastward toward Tropical Storm Hernan located near the coast of west-central Mexico. Iselle should generally move northeastward to north-northeastward as it remains embedded in a trough with Hernan for about another day. Thereafter, Hernan is expected to dissipate and a low- to mid-level ridge should cause Iselle to turn to the northwest. This track keeps Iselle well offshore the Baja California peninsula. The models are in fair agreement, and this forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. The initial wind radii have been modified based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.9N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.7N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.1N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.7N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 23.0N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 23.9N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 24.2N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-28 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 280831 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ISLA CLARION 50 28 5(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 31(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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