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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-15 10:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150834 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Intermittent bursts of convection continue to develop near the depression's center, before northeasterly shear re-exposes the center of circulation. A recent ASCAT overpass shows that the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. None of the global or regional models make the cyclone a tropical storm, with the only guidance suggesting strengthening being the SHIPS at the end of the forecast period, when the vertical wind shear may finally abate. However,the atmospheric environment begins to dry out by that time. The official forecast no longer shows intensification, and keeps the cyclone a depression for the duration of the 5-day forecast. The depression continues to meander westward, now at 2 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to move the cyclone slowly westward this morning. The ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow the depression to gain a little latitude later this weekend through early next week. Regardless of this motion, the system will not move very far over the next several days. The official forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the consensus track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 13.4N 133.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 13.3N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 13.2N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 13.5N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 14.2N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 14.5N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 14.4N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-15 10:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION DRIFTING OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.4, -133.4 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 9
2020-08-15 10:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 072 WTPZ35 KNHC 150833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...DEPRESSION DRIFTING OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 133.4W ABOUT 1670 MI...2690 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 133.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The system is forecast to meander generally westward this morning and then northwestward through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Minor fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next two or three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-15 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 150833 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.4W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.4W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.3N 133.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.2N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.5N 134.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.2N 135.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 135.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.4N 136.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 133.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-08-15 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 935 FOPZ15 KNHC 150833 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 3(22) 1(23) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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