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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-15 07:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 150535 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located more than 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure located about 150 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a little better defined since yesterday. However, the associated shower activity remains limited. While some additional development of this system is possible, the low is forecast to move over cooler waters on Saturday and the chance of this system becoming a tropical depression appears to be decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Another area of disturbed weather associated with a broad area of low pressure is located about 700 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of this system, and it is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly north-northwestward or northward during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms just offshore of the Pacific coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for a low pressure system to develop from this trough over the next day or so, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-15 07:03:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 150503 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kyle, located offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Kyle are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kyle are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-15 04:39:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:39:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:39:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-15 04:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:38:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:38:27 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-15 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150238 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Deep convection has redeveloped over the southern and western portions of the depression's circulation this evening, however, the low-level center remains exposed due to moderate to strong northeasterly shear. There has been little change to the satellite intensity estimates since this afternoon and no recent scatterometer data. As a result, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The northeasterly shear preventing the depression from strengthening is not forecast to abate over the next 2-3 days, and no significant change in intensity is forecast during that time. If the cyclone survives into early next week, the shear is forecast to lessen, which could allow for some modest strengthening later in the period. The NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the latest statistical guidance and the multi-model intensity consensus. The depression is meandering westward or 260/3 kt. The cyclone is not expected to move very far over the next several days. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system is forecast to steer the depression west-southwestward to westward over the next day or so, but as the ridge weakens and changes orientation a slow northwestward motion is expected by early next week. While there remains some spread in the model guidance, they generally agree that the depression will not move much through the forecast period, and little overall change to the previous forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 13.4N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 13.5N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 14.4N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 14.0N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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