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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-15 01:20:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 142320 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Kyle, located offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Kyle are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kyle are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-15 01:17:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 142317 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located more than 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located about 175 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a little better defined since yesterday. However, the associated shower activity remains limited. While some additional development of this system is possible, the low is forecast to reach cooler waters on Saturday and the chance of this system becoming a tropical depression appears to be decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Another area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of this system and it is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly north-northwestward or northward during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms just offshore of the Pacific coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for a low pressure system to develop from this trough over the next day or so, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kyle Graphics
2020-08-14 22:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 20:56:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 20:56:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-14 22:54:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142054 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 ASCAT-B data valid around 1900 UTC showed max winds a little higher than 30 kt associated with the rain-free circulation of the depression. However, since that time, the convective structure of the cyclone has degraded substantially and if it was previously producing winds of tropical-storm-force, it likely no longer is doing so at this time. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 30 kt. Only minor fluctuations in the intensity and structure of the depression are expected for the next 3 days due to strong northeasterly wind shear. Assuming the system doesn't dissipate at some point during that period of time, the upper-level winds could become less hostile early next week. The dynamical guidance generally indicates that the tropical cyclone will hang on and modest strengthening is possible early next week. No changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which closely follows the multi-model consensus. Likewise, only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. The depression is still forecast to meander for the next 5 days, initially west-southwestward to westward, then northwestward over the weekend. The strength of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is the primary factor in the steering flow. While there are slight variations from model to model on the speed and heading of the tropical cyclone, they all agree that it won't move much through the early portion of next week, and possibly even beyond that. The NHC forecast essentially splits the difference between the previous official forecast, HCCA, and TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 13.5N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 13.3N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 13.2N 133.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 13.8N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 14.5N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 14.6N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-14 22:53:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 20:53:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 20:53:50 GMT
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