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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-15 13:25:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 151125 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kyle, located a few hundred miles southeast of the New England states of the United States. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Kyle are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kyle are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-15 13:12:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151112 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located more than 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing a small area of showers. This system has moved over colder waters and further development is unlikely. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system has slowly become better organized since yesterday and environmental conditions appear favorable for further development today and tomorrow. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves slowly north-northwestward or northward during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are beginning to show signs of organization. Conditions appear conducive for further development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-15 10:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:41:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:41:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-08-15 10:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150839 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine continues to produce disorganized bursts of deep convection to the north and northeast of the estimated center, with little evidence of any banding features. In spite of the shear, the storm is still producing high-level outflow into the strong upper-level winds. The current intensity estimate of 40 kt is based on continuity from the previous scatterometer-based observations, and an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning, and this should provide a good intensity estimate. Since vertical shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the western Atlantic is forecast to become quite strong over the next few days, a weakening trend is likely to commence in a day or so. The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction. It is also possible that the system will degenerate into an open wave within the next couple of days, as shown by the global models. It is difficult to locate the center at this time, but it is believed to be situated near the southwest edge of the main area of deep convection. This leads to a somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward to the south and southwest of a subtropical high pressure area, and then to turn northwest, north, and north-northeast along the periphery of the high. The official track forecast remains close to the NOAA corrected model consensus prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.9N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 20.7N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 23.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 26.5N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-15 10:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOSEPHINE LATER THIS MORNING... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Josephine was located near 18.9, -58.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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