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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-15 16:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 14:33:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 14:33:30 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-15 16:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF JOSEPHINE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Josephine was located near 19.1, -60.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 16
2020-08-15 16:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151432 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 ...CENTER OF JOSEPHINE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 60.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 60.2 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands today and tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through today. After that, Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-08-15 16:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 151432 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-15 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151432 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Tropical Depression Ten continues to produce a small area of convection in its southwest quadrant. It would be a stretch to say the convection is particularly organized, but it is persistent nonetheless. The intensity remains 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data and the lack of notable change to the depression's structure since last night. The depression continues to meander slowly westward, and while it could begin to gain some latitude later today, all of the reliable track models indicate that it won't move very much during the next 5 days. The current structure (or lack thereof) of the cyclone would suggest that it could become post-tropical or even dissipate in the near future. However, this is not supported by any of the dynamical guidance. In fact, looking 5 days ahead in the global and regional models, the depression is still there producing varying amounts of deep convection. The NHC forecast therefore continues to show the system persisting as a tropical depression through day 5. No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity forecast which remain near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 13.2N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 13.3N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.0N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 14.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 14.5N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 14.3N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 13.5N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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