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Tropical Storm Mindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-09 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 090246 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM MINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 20 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) WAYCROSS GA 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 15 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) JACKSONVILLE 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-09 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090246 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that the center of Mindy made landfall over St. Vincent Island, Florida, near 0115 UTC. Since that time, the center has been moving along the shoreline of Apalachee Bay. The intensity is held at 40 kt based on continuity from earlier buoy data and a 43-kt wind at an elevated tower south of Apalachicola. The central pressure has been lowered to 1002 mb based on surface obs from the Apalachicola area. It should be noted that while Mindy is not well organized in satellite imagery, but it has a good radar presentation. The initial motion is 055/17. A general east-northeastward motion should continue for the next 24 h or so as Mindy moves along the southern edge of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the eastern United States. After that, a decrease in forward speed and a more eastward motion are expected as the aforementioned trough moves away from Mindy and the cyclone becomes vertically shallow. The forecast track keeps the center along the Gulf coast for a few more hours, followed by a motion across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous forecast. Little change in strength is likely during the next few hours while the center of Mindy straddles the coast. Weakening should occur as the center moves farther inland later tonight, aided by an increase in westerly vertical wind shear. By the time the cyclone reaches the Atlantic, the shear should be strong enough to make the system continue to weaken. The new intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast during the first 12 h, then is similar to the previous forecast in calling for the cyclone to dissipate after 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible across portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia near the center of Mindy. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 29.9N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 31.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0000Z 32.2N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/1200Z 33.1N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 33.7N 70.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 34.1N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 34.3N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-09 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090246 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.0N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.2N 77.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.1N 73.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 70.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.1N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 34.3N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 84.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Mindy Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-09 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090246 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...CENTER OF MINDY MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 84.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Florida Gulf coast west of Indian pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 84.5 West. Mindy is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and an east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move along the coastline of Apalachee Bay for the next few hours, then move across the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic by tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected as Mindy moves over land and into an area of unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The Tyndall Air Force Base tower south of Apalachicola recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation of 115 ft (35 m). In addition, there are multiple reports of wind gusts near 55 mph (89 km/h) from St. George Island, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later this evening and tonight. Tropical-storm force winds may occur near the center of Mindy over portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north Florida and far south Georgia through tomorrow morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-09 04:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:38:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:38:30 GMT
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