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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-10-13 20:11:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

731 ABNT20 KNHC 131728 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that a broad low pressure system has formed about 200 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly over the open Atlantic to the north and east of the low. Further development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next couple of days due to unfavorable upper-level winds. The system is forecast to move slowly northeastward through tonight, then accelerate eastward on Thursday. Toward the end of the week, further development is not anticipated since the disturbance will be interacting with a frontal system. The threat of locally heavy rainfall across portions of Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos will diminish by tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-10-13 19:59:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 131758 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 13 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Pamela, located inland over west-central Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin

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Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)

2021-10-13 19:58:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM PAMELA MOVING WELL INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURING... As of 12:00 PM MDT Wed Oct 13 the center of Pamela was located near 25.1, -104.8 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 14A

2021-10-13 19:58:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 131757 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1200 PM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM PAMELA MOVING WELL INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURING... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 104.8W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM NE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...40 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal watches and warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of recently downgraded Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 104.8 West. Pamela is accelerating toward the northeast near 25 mph (40 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue at a faster speed until the system dissipates. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast as the center moves farther inland and Pamela is expected to dissipate by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (220 km) from the center. A high-elevation station at La Michilia in the Mexican state of Durango recently observed a wind gust of 78 mph (125 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge along portions of the coast of Sinaloa will gradually subside this afternoon. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions will continue inland across portion of west-central Mainland Mexico for the next few hours. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

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