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Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-12 22:46:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS PAMELA HAS WEAKENED... ...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED WHILE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 the center of Pamela was located near 21.0, -109.3 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 11
2021-10-12 22:46:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 385 WTPZ31 KNHC 122046 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS PAMELA HAS WEAKENED... ...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED WHILE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 109.3W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, in this case within the next 12 hours, producing conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 109.3 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected to occur soon, followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight into Wednesday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. However, restrengthening is forecast overnight, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane again before it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon and evening. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-10-12 22:45:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 122045 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PRODUCING CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 109.3W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 109.3W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.7N 107.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.4N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.8N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.0N 97.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 109.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-12 19:45:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121745 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 12 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Pamela, located more than 300 miles southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-12 19:23:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 121723 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms affecting Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas are associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur during the next couple of days due to unfavorable environmental conditions while the disturbance initially drifts northward and then accelerates eastward on Thursday. The disturbance is expected to interact with a frontal system by the end of the week, and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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