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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-12 07:21:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 120520 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 11 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Pamela, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-12 07:20:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 120520 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the tropical wave, located a little over 150 miles east of the Windward Islands, has become less defined overnight. While this system continues to produce showers and thunderstorms primarily east of its center, strong upper-level winds will likely prevent further development during the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Another tropical wave moving over Hispaniola is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions are not forecast to be conducive for development of this system, a broad area of low pressure, however, is expected to form near the southeast Bahamas on Wednesday and drift generally eastward through the end of the week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Pamela Graphics
2021-10-12 04:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Oct 2021 02:39:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Oct 2021 03:22:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-10-12 04:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Pamela continues to be affected by some modest northwesterly mid-level shear that has caused the low-level center to be located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection. This was evident in an earlier AMSR2 microwave image that arrived shortly after the release of the previous NHC advisory package. Recent objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers still support an intensity of around 60 kt, and that value is maintained as the initial wind speed for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm late tomorrow morning and early afternoon to better provide a better assessment of Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field. The guidance suggests that the shear that has been plaguing Pamela should relax during the next 12-24 hours, allowing for strengthening. Nearly all of the statistical and dynamical model intensity guidance calls for strengthening, but they have trended toward a lower peak intensity primarily due to the fact that Pamela so far has not strengthened as much as expected. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Pamela to become a hurricane overnight or early Tuesday, and shows the system nearing major hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of mainland Mexico early Wednesday. Although the official forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance, it is supported by the GFS model which has been consistent in significantly deepening Pamela during the cyclone's approach to Mexico on Tuesday and Tuesday night. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur as the system moves over the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico, and Pamela is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low or dissipate by Thursday. Pamela is moving north-northwestward or 335/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy again remains unchanged this advisory. The cyclone is forecast to turn northward tonight as it reaches the western portion of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. A faster northeastward motion is expected by late Tuesday as Pamela recurves ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough moving into northwestern Mexico. The track guidance is in very good agreement on the overall evolution of the steering pattern, but there are still some differences in how quickly Pamela accelerates northeastward on Tuesday. Therefore, the NHC forecast is once again close to the various multi-model consensus aids. Although the cyclone could dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it reaches the southwestern coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life- threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.9N 108.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 19.2N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 23.1N 106.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 26.1N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 14/1200Z 29.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-10-12 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120237 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 10(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 8( 9) 15(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 26(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 24(25) 42(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X 5( 5) 81(86) 7(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 46(46) 19(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 21(21) 14(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 35 29(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 20N 110W 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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