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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-08-08 13:41:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 081141 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable to support some gradual development, and this system could become a tropical depression while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the middle of this week. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have become more concentrated since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for gradual development, and this system could become a tropical depression within the next few days. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the west-southwest or west during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster toward the west by mid-week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about a hundred miles west of the southwesternmost Cabo Verde Islands have diminished since yesterday. Strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are expected to prevent the development of this system while it moves toward the west or west-northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-08-08 13:24:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

787 ABPZ20 KNHC 081124 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure is producing some disorganized shower activity a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle portions of the week. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph during the next several days, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics

2021-08-08 10:40:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 08:40:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 09:22:32 GMT

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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-08-08 10:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080839 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 Kevin has changed little overnight. Microwave data and infrared satellite imagery reveal that its convective bands are still somewhat fragmented with only modest curvature. Recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 35 to 45 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Unfortunately, no recent scatterometer passes were available to better assess the cyclone's current intensity. The cyclone continues moving westward, or 270 degrees, at around 9 kt. This motion is expected for another 12 to 24 h, before a mid- to upper-level trough weakens the steering ridge and causes Kevin to move west-northwestward through midweek. Kevin is forecast to pass near or just south of Clarion Island on Tuesday. The track guidance is in good agreement for much of the forecast period, and the latest official NHC forecast lies near the previous one and generally follows the multi-model consensus aids. Kevin appears primed for some strengthening, as the cyclone will remain in a moist, unstable environment with ample oceanic heat content for the next couple of days. However, persistent northeasterly wind shear of 15-20 kt will likely curtail rapid intensification in an otherwise favorable environment. Despite the shear, the guidance supports strengthening in the near-term, and the official NHC forecast shows Kevin becoming a hurricane on Monday. The cyclone's intensity is forecast to level off by Tuesday, with weakening thereafter as Kevin moves over cooler waters and continues to battle moderate shear. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but remains near or slightly above the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and IVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.8N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 20.8N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2021-08-08 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 080837 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 28 27(55) 2(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 15N 110W 50 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 13(19) 8(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 30(38) 41(79) 1(80) X(80) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 37(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 37(48) 3(51) X(51) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 5(43) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

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