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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-08 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Aug 8 the center of Kevin was located near 15.8, -108.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-08 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080837 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 ...KEVIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 108.7W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 108.7 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a west-northwestward motion on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today, and spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-08 10:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.7W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.7W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-08 07:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 080531 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about a hundred miles southwest of the southwesternmost Cabo Verde Islands have diminished. Strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are expected to prevent significant development of this system while it moves toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph during the next few days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds still are possible over portions of the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands through Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. An area of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity to the southwest of its center. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for gradual development over the next several days, and this system could become a tropical depression by the middle of this week. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the west-southwest or west during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster toward the west-northwest by mid-week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, reaching portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday and then moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles through the middle of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-08 07:22:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 080522 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 7 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin, located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is producing some disorganized shower activity a few hundred miles offshore of the coasts of southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle portions of the week. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph during the next several days, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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