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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-10-03 22:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 032039 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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victor
Summary for Tropical Depression Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-03 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED VICTOR EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 3 the center of Victor was located near 17.1, -41.3 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 18
2021-10-03 22:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED VICTOR EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 41.3W ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 41.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Victor is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Monday and dissipate soon thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-10-03 22:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 032038 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.3W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.3W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.4N 42.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 45.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 41.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-03 20:28:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
062 ABNT20 KNHC 031729 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located about 600 miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and on Tropical Depression Victor, located over the central tropical Atlantic. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers over the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters is associated with a surface trough. Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph through Monday, followed by a slow northwestward motion through the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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