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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-10-02 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022039 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor was about out of time as a tropical cyclone, but a recent burst of deep convection about 60 n mi northeast of its center saved it from being declared a remnant low this afternoon. The cyclone continues to struggle with dry air and strong southwesterly shear. Scatterometer overpasses missed Victor today, so the initial advisory intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest CI-value from the TAFB Dvorak estimate. The depression is moving northwest, or 310/12 kt in the flow to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. This general motion is forecast to continue until Victor dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various multimodel track consensus solutions. Victor refused to succumb to the strong shear and dry air over the past 24 h. However, these hostile conditions are not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Therefore, the depression should struggle to maintain persistent deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low at any time over the next couple of days. The global model guidance is in good agreement that Victor should gradually weaken early this week, and open into a tough of low pressure by Tuesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, except for the timing of the system becoming a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 13.7N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.9N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.8N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 18.9N 43.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 20.7N 45.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 22.5N 47.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Victor Graphics
2021-10-02 22:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 20:37:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 21:28:56 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-02 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR STILL HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 2 the center of Victor was located near 13.7, -38.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 14
2021-10-02 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...VICTOR STILL HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 38.0W ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 38.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Victor could become a remnant low during that time. The system is then forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-10-02 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 022036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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