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Tropical Storm Victor Graphics
2021-10-02 10:43:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 08:43:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 09:29:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-10-02 10:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 118 WTNT45 KNHC 020842 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor's satellite appearance has continued to degrade this morning with the closest convection now located more than 150 nmi northeast of the fully exposed low-level circulation center. Thus, Victor no longer technically meets the convective criterion of a tropical cyclone. However, tropical cyclone status is being maintained for this advisory out of continuity with the previous advisory and just in case a burst of deep convection redevelops later today near the still-well-defined low-level circulation center. Victor's intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based on a subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of CI3.0/45 kt from TAFB, and the typical decay rate and spin down of a non-convective vortex over open water. The motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt. Victor is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 72-96 hours or until dissipation occurs. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models. Deep-layer south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 20 kt and entrainment of dry mid-level air have taken their toll on Victor. These unfavorable environmental parameters are expected to worsen, resulting in continued weakening throughout the forecast period. Therefore, Victor is forecast to become a tropical depression by Sunday, degenerate into a remnant low by Monday, and dissipate by Wednesday. However, the current weakening trend will be hastened if organized convection does not return within the next 12 hours. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and is also lower than most of the intensity guidance due to Victor's aforementioned severely degraded convective pattern. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 12.8N 36.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.5N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.8N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z 21.7N 45.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 23.1N 47.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-02 10:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 2 the center of Victor was located near 12.8, -36.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 12
2021-10-02 10:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...VICTOR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 36.3W ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 36.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn toward the northwest over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Victor is now forecast to become a remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-10-02 10:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.3W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.3W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 35.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 37.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.5N 39.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N 45.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.1N 47.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 36.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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