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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-10-04 04:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040233 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 43.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 43.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 44.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 43.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-04 01:10:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 032310 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Oct 3 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-04 01:08:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 032308 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located over the far North Atlantic and on Tropical Depression Victor, located over the central tropical Atlantic. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers continues over the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent southwestern Atlantic waters in association with a surface trough. Upper-level winds are not expected to be especially conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves slowly northwestward through late this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Victor Graphics
2021-10-03 22:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 20:40:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 20:40:28 GMT
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-10-03 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032039 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 The convective structure of Victor has deteriorated this afternoon. Only small pulses of convection have been observed north of the center over the past several hours. Victor's exposed low-level circulation is also becoming more diffuse, with multiple cloud swirls noted in visible satellite imagery. Hopefully, scatterometer data this evening will provide more information about whether Victor still possesses a closed and well-defined surface center. For now, Victor is held as a 30-kt tropical depression, which is consistent with earlier scatterometer winds and a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Victor is unlikely to remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The dry mid-level environment and 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to limit Victor's ability to sustain deep, organized convection going forward. Even if another diurnal convective pulse occurs tonight, it should be quickly stripped away from the center by the moderate to strong shear. The official NHC forecast shows Victor becoming a remnant low on Monday, then opening up into a trough and dissipating soon thereafter. Victor is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt. A northwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as the depression is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The official NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.1N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.4N 42.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.7N 45.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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