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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-03 07:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 030545 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located more than 600 miles south-southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, and on Tropical Depression Victor, located over the central tropical Atlantic. A surface trough located about 100 miles east of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area of cloudiness and shower activity along and to the east of the trough axis. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for slow development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph through Monday, followed by a slow northwestward motion through the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-03 07:22:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 030522 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 2 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located about 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Although additional development is not expected over the next couple of days, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for gradual development by early next week while the system drifts westward through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-10-03 04:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030246 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Victor remains a tropical cyclone this evening, with pulsing deep convection occuring primarily north of the well-defined low-level center. However, this convection lacks much organization and is continually being stripped away by around 20 kt of south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Earlier this evening, there was an ASCAT-A pass valid at 2238 UTC which had peak wind retrievals of 25-30 kt to the northeast of the center. There was also a nearby moored ocean buoy that at 0000 UTC reported sustained winds of 28 kt with a pressure of 1006.7 mb also just northeast of Victor. The latest advisory intensity is thus being maintained at 30 kt but the minimum pressure was lowered a bit due to this in-situ buoy data. The 30 kt intensity also agrees with most recent TAFB Dvorak CI estimate from 0000 UTC. Ultimately the combination of southwesterly vertical wind shear and the associated entrainment of dry air will prove victorious against Victor, with the depression forecast to gradually weaken during the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Victor becoming a remnant low by tomorrow evening, though 27 to 28 C sea surface temperatures could still support sheared convective bursts to the north of the low center into early next week. Victor's low-level wind field will also continue to spin down over the subsequent days, and the circulation is forecast to open up into a trough by Tuesday. The latest forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is in good agreement with the consensus aids and deterministic model output. The depression continues to move to the northwest at 310/12 kt though with the occasional tug poleward by the convection on its northern side. This northwestward motion is expected to continue as Victor remains embedded in the flow around a low-level subtropical anticyclone to its northeast. The NHC track forecast continues to be in general agreement with the track guidance consensus, maintaining Victor on a similar forward motion until the system opens up into a trough in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.3N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 20.3N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 21.8N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 23.2N 48.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Victor Graphics
2021-10-03 04:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 02:46:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Oct 2021 02:46:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-10-03 04:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 030244 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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