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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-02 01:30:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 012330 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Oct 1 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A trough of low pressure is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico. Development of this system is no longer anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions as it moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Storm Victor Graphics
2021-10-01 22:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 20:44:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 21:29:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-10-01 22:43:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012043 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 Victor is looking disorganized. Deep convection has decreased in organization and coverage this afternoon. No recent microwave imagery has been available to assess the structure of the storm, but visible images from MET-11 and GOES-17 suggest that the circulation of the tropical storm is still elongated southwest-to-northeast. The intensity estimate remains 55 kt for this advisory, but this is on the high end of the recent estimates and could be generous. Compared to the large changes made this morning, almost no change was made to the official track forecast this afternoon. The model consensus has shifted substantially back to the right, and now lies very near the previous NHC forecast. Victor is forecast to turn northwestward tomorrow, and then continue on that heading through early next week, steered by ridging to the northeast. The new NHC forecast is very near the model consensus through the end of the forecast. Despite the recent agreement between the NHC forecast and the consensus, confidence in the forecast will remain low until we see better run-to-run consistency in the track model guidance. Shear and dry air may already be taking a toll on Victor, and SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment will get worse with time. All of the intensity models forecast that Victor will weaken over the next several days in response to the hostile environment, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast, which is heavily based on the IVCN multi-model consensus. By day 5, all of the dynamical models indicate that Victor will likely degenerate into a trough of low pressure, so dissipation is shown. Several models, including the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF indicate dissipation could occur sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 12.0N 34.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.9N 37.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 15.6N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.6N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 21.5N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-10-01 22:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 012041 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-01 22:41:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 1 the center of Victor was located near 12.0, -34.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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