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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-11-17 22:12:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172111 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 Corrected Daylight Time to Standard time Visible satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation of the area of low pressure located well south-southwest of Baja California has become better defined today. The associated convective activity has also become organized in a band around the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Therefore, the system is being classified as a tropical depression with winds of 30 kt, as indicated by the scatterometer data and a T2.0 (30 kt) Dvorak classification from TAFB. The depression is currently located over SSTs of around 28 deg C, and within a low shear environment. These conditions are conducive for strengthening, but the surrounding mid-level environment is fairly dry which is likely to limit intensification. Most of the intensity guidance calls for the system to become a short-lived tropical storm, and so does the official forecast. After 24 hours, increasing upper-level westerly winds, cooler SSTs, and even less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to weaken. The system is likely to become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and the global models show it degenerating into a trough of low pressure in 60-72 hours, which is also indicated in the NHC forecast. The initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific should steer the system west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone is likely to turn more westward as it weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 15.2N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212020)
2020-11-17 22:10:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 2:00 PM MST Tue Nov 17 the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 15.2, -113.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-11-17 22:10:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 172109 CCA TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 1...Corretced NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 Corrected Daylight Time to Standard Time ...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 113.3W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 113.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low within two to three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics
2020-11-17 21:44:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 20:44:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Nov 2020 20:44:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-11-17 21:43:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 797 WTNT41 KNHC 172043 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 The cloud pattern of Iota has slowly degraded during the day, with warming of the cloud tops, but it has remained fairly well organized for a system that's been over land for about 18 hours. The initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using the Decay-SHIPS guidance. Iota will encounter higher terrain soon while it moves westward at about 10 kt, so it should quickly weaken tonight, and it will probably degenerate into a weak low near El Salvador overnight. None of the available guidance show regeneration in the eastern Pacific, perhaps due to cooler SSTs with all of the recent gap wind events, and plenty of drier air in the vicinity. Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides, These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. 2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.7N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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