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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 19A
2020-11-18 06:56:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180556 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020 ...IOTA MOVING OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS TOWARDS EL SALVADOR... ...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 87.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF EL PAPALON EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Honduras west of Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Guatemala border * Bay Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 87.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected through today. On the forecast track, the center of Iota will move across portions of southern Honduras and El Salvador before the system dissipates later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Iota should weaken to a tropical depression later this morning and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area by this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly along the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still occurring along the northwestern coast of Honduras. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions will continue for a couple of more hours well to the north of the center along the Caribbean coast of northwestern Honduras. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday: El Salvador, Panama, western Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southern Belize : 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-18 06:45:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 180545 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Iota, located inland over Central America near the Honduras/El Salvador border. A broad area of low pressure could form in a day or so over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for slow development over the next several days while the system moves slowly west-southwestward or westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, areas of heavy rain are possible during the next several days from Nicaragua southward across Central America and into Colombia. These rains could cause new flooding concerns, especially across previously inundated areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure could form between the Bahamas and Bermuda by early next week. The system could gradually develop subtropical characteristics through the middle of next week while it moves northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-18 06:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 180535 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Tue Nov 17 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics
2020-11-18 03:48:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 02:48:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2020 03:31:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-18 03:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180236 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020 Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showed curved bands developing over the western portion of the cyclone, although deep convection remains rather limited near the depression's surface center. Subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers haven't changed during the past 6 hours and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity aids along with the LGEM model indicate that the depression will strengthen to a low-end tropical storm during the next 12-24 hrs and the NHC forecast continues to show this trend. Afterward, modest west-southwesterly shear, cooler oceanic temperatures, and the presence of a very dry and stable air mass should cause the cyclone to weaken and degenerate to a remnant low in 2 days. The deterministic guidance agrees that the depression will open up into a trough of low pressure in 4 days, or less. This is also reflected in the official intensity forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt in the mid-tropospheric steering current provided by high pressure anchored to the north of the cyclone. The depression is expected to continue in this general motion through Thursday. Through the remaining forecast period, the depression is forecast to turn westward in the low-level easterly flow as a shallow, or vertically limited cyclone. The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 15.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 15.9N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.9N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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