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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-18 18:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 181738 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Wed Nov 18 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the remnants of Iota, located inland over El Salvador. A broad area of low pressure could form in a day or so over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Development, if any, of this system is expected to slow to occur during the next several days while the it moves slowly west-southwestward or westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, areas of heavy rain are possible during the next several days from Nicaragua southward across Central America and into Colombia. These rains could cause new flooding concerns, especially across previously inundated areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure could form between the Bahamas and Bermuda by early next week. The system could gradually develop subtropical characteristics through the middle of next week while it moves northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-18 15:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181440 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 Satellite images indicate that the depression has strengthened into a tropical storm. The small central dense overcast has grown during the past several hours and a few banding features have formed. Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, which matches the latest CIMSS satellite consensus estimate. Polo could strengthen a little more today, but an increase in shear and dry-air entrainment should start the weakening process on Thursday, with the system expected to become a non-convective remnant low on Friday. The new NHC forecast is a little below the model consensus, close to the previous NHC forecast, leaning toward the idea that the small tropical cyclone will probably weaken faster than the bulk of the guidance anticipates. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward at 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with Polo forecast to remain on the southern side of a mid-level ridge throughout the period. The storm should turn more westward on Thursday as the system weakens and becomes more shallow. The new forecast is south of the latest model consensus, nudged slightly north of the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 16.3N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 16.5N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 16.9N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/0000Z 17.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-11-18 15:38:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181438 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Polo (EP1/EP212020)
2020-11-18 15:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM POLO FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM PST Wed Nov 18 the center of Polo was located near 16.3, -116.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Polo Public Advisory Number 4
2020-11-18 15:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 181438 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM POLO FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 116.0W ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 116.0 West. Polo is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, with gradual weakening anticipated to begin on Thursday. Polo should degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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