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Summary for Tropical Depression JULIA (AT1/AL112016)

2016-09-18 22:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JULIA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 18 the center of JULIA was located near 32.3, -78.0 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression JULIA Public Advisory Number 20

2016-09-18 22:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 182032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 ...JULIA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 78.0W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina should monitor the progress of Julia. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 78.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast to occur tonight, and that motion is expected to continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to be near the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina by Monday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The interaction of Julia with a weak cold front pushing slowly eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches across eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region northward into eastern New York and southern New England through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches will be possible, especially over portions of eastern North Carolina northward into parts of eastern Virginia, eastern Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. These amounts could result in localized flooding or flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

2016-09-18 22:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 182032 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 9( 9) 11(20) 3(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 8( 8) 10(18) 3(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 10(10) 10(20) 3(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 1 12(13) 11(24) 2(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) SURF CITY NC 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 13(14) 10(24) 1(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 13(16) 7(23) 2(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 2 8(10) 6(16) 2(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 20

2016-09-18 22:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 182031 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 77.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 33.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 34.0N 77.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 34.6N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.9N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 34.2N 78.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 78.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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