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Tropical Depression JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2016-09-18 10:46:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 180846 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Depression JULIA (AT1/AL112016)

2016-09-18 10:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JULIA TRYING TO MAKE A COMEBACK... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 the center of JULIA was located near 31.3, -76.7 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression JULIA Public Advisory Number 18

2016-09-18 10:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180845 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016 ...JULIA TRYING TO MAKE A COMEBACK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 76.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the progress of Julia. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 76.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow northward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 18

2016-09-18 10:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180845 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 76.7W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 76.7W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 76.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.8N 77.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 32.4N 77.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 33.3N 76.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.7N 77.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.5N 77.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 76.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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