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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 17

2016-09-18 04:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180232 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 I have two options this evening. The first one, which is very attractive, is to classify Julia as a remnant low and terminate advisories. The second one is to keep Julia as a tropical depression in this advisory given that there was deep convection associated with the center only a few hours ago. Although it lacks thunderstorm activity, the convection has returned over and over again for the past day or so when we think it will not. I will then adopt the second option. Strong upper-level northerly winds are expected to continue affecting the circulation, and if the convection returns it will quickly be removed from the center. Therefore, Julia is forecast once again to become a remnant low soon and gradually decay. Julia is drifting northwestward at about 3 kt embedded within very light steering flow. Most of the global models keep a low meandering over water off the southeast U.S. coast, and so does the NHC forecast. Some global models actually regenerate the low, but given the strong shear, this solution does not seem realistic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 30.6N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 30.9N 76.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 32.5N 77.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2016-09-18 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 180232 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0300 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Depression JULIA (AT1/AL112016)

2016-09-18 04:32:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JULIA'S DEMISE IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 the center of JULIA was located near 30.6, -76.5 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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Tropical Depression JULIA Public Advisory Number 17

2016-09-18 04:32:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 ...JULIA'S DEMISE IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 76.5W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and only a small northward drift is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Julia is expected to become a remnant low on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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